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March 26, 2014

Housing's Sweet 16

Research and Analysis
Apartment Rental Couple

Every housing market has a sweet spot. Our new Multi-Indicator Market IndexSM (MiMiSM) calls this sweet spot "In Range" –  when the key ingredients needed to support a stable housing market are in balance.

According to MiMi, housing markets in 11 of the 50 states plus D.C. are "In Range" and stable: North Dakota, D.C., Wyoming, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, Hawaii, Texas, South Dakota, and Vermont.  Several other states are not far behind and Utah, Oklahoma, Iowa, Idaho, and Virginia could soon round out our Sweet 16 if they make positive gains in the coming months.

So, housing doesn't have a Sweet 16 yet, but the trends suggest we are getting closer.

Measuring Stability Locally

MiMi offers a fresh perspective on the nation's housing markets by providing local market data in context for anyone interested in housing.

How? We measure housing stability for the top 50 metros, each state plus D.C., and the nation to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own long-term stable norm.  

MiMi is interactive and easy to use. Check it out to see for yourself how your housing market is doing today, where it is heading, and how it compares to other markets across the nation. And for more details, read Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft's Executive Perspective on MiMi.

MiMi: Key Findings

Some interesting findings from MiMi's inaugural release today that reflects data as of January 2014:

  • Top Ranked Stable States: Seven of the 11 state housing markets are in their long-term stable range and are benefitting from the energy boom, which is providing strong employment growth, income growth, and house price gains.
  • Top Ranked Stable Metros: The only four metros in their long-term stable range are also concentrated in the energy-related states of Texas and Louisiana: San Antonio, Houston, Austin, and New Orleans.
  • Most Improving State Markets: While still struggling, some of the states hardest hit by the housing crisis showed the greatest improvements from December to January, including Florida and Nevada.
  • Most Improving Metro Markets: Two of the five most improving metros – Miami and Orlando – hail from Florida, one of the states most impacted during the housing downturn. Looking year-over-year, this improvement trend for the hardest hit states still holds true as Miami, Orlando, Riverside, Las Vegas and Tampa showed the greatest gains from a year ago.
  • The Nation: The national housing market is still weak overall, but many markets are trending in the right direction with 25 of the 50 states plus D.C., and 35 of the 50 top metros, moving closer toward their long-term stable range.

We'll be releasing MiMi monthly. Sign up to receive the latest MiMi release and stay up-to-date on the current housing trends for the nation, each state, and your local market.

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