U. S. Home Prices Declined 1.1 Percent Over Last Four Quarters Prices in Pacific Division Up 4.5 Percent Year-Over-Year
May 26,
2010
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McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) announced today that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Purchase-Only Series for the United States registered a 1.1 percent decline from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010. In the first quarter of 2010, the U.S. Index was down 2.1 percent (-8.0 percent annualized) relative to the fourth quarter, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.
“Home-value declines and continued low mortgage rates have kept home-buyer affordability relatively high. Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans averaged 5.0 percent in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey® over the first quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“House price measures tend to show a lot of seasonality, with values lower during the slow home-selling months of autumn and winter and higher during the greater-activity months of spring and summer. Examining year-over-year home-value changes largely controls for seasonality. Compared with the first quarter of 2009, the national index dipped slightly – down 1.1 percent – with three-of-nine regions posting price gains. Houses in the Pacific region were up 4.5 percent over the past year, and in the Middle Atlantic and West South Central states prices were up about one percentage point, on average. While values were up the most in the Pacific region over the past year, this gain occurred after values had fallen more than 30 percent over the two prior years, from the beginning of 2007 to the beginning of 2009.”
The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series includes only property values based on home purchases with a conventional mortgage in its calculation. Freddie Mac also produces a CMHPI Classic Series that includes data from both home purchase transactions and mortgage refinancings, with the latter values based on appraisals. Generally, because appraisals are backwards looking through the use of recent comparable property transactions, the Classic Series will typically lag changes in the Purchase-Only series. The CMHPI Classic Series indicated that average U.S. home values fell 1.5 percent (-6.0 percent annualized) during the first quarter. Comparing the first quarter of 2010 with the first quarter of 2009, the Classic Series shows 6.7 percent depreciation.
The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series had the following regional house-price changes:
Middle Atlantic Division (NJ, NY, PA): decreased 0.4 percent (-1.7 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values increased 1.0 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 10.1 percent.
West South Central Division (AR, LA, OK, TX): fell 0.9 percent (-3.5 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values were increased 0.7 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 16.6 percent.
New England Division (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT): declined 1.1 percent (-4.5 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 1.7 percent, and during the last five years, home values declined 6.5 percent.
Pacific Division (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA): decreased 2.0 percent (-7.8 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values increased 4.5 percent, and during the last five years, home values have decreased 13.2 percent.
South Atlantic Division (DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV): fell 2.3 percent (-8.8 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 4.0 percent, and during the last five years, home values fell 5.2 percent.
Mountain Division (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY): decreased 2.8 percent (-10.8 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. In the last 12 months, home values decreased 6.1 percent; during the last five years, home values declined 4.4 percent.
East North Central Division (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI): decreased 2.9 percent (-11.2 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.4 percent, and during the last five years, home values decreased 8.9 percent.
East South Central Division (AL, KY, MS, TN): decreased 3.1 percent (-11.9 percent, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 1.8 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 8.7 percent.
West North Central Division (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD): decreased 3.2 percent (-12.1, annualized) in the first quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months, home values fell 1.3 percent; over the last five years, home values decreased 0.2 percent.
Unlike other home price indexes based on mean or median values of homes sold during a given period, the CMHPI is constructed using regression techniques from observations of actual sales prices or appraised values of the same homes over time. The street addresses of properties that serve as collateral for mortgages are processed using software certified by the United States Postal Service to create a uniform address format and are then matched to identify consecutive transactions on the same property. There are currently 42 million records in the repeat-transactions database used to construct the classic Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index – this database includes transactions on one-family detached and townhome properties serving as collateral on loans originated through the first quarter of 2010 and purchased by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae by April 30, 2010.
Freddie Mac publishes the CMHPI each quarter. Index values and growth rates for the classic series are available for the nation as a whole as well as for the nine Census divisions, the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and 392 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan divisions; index values and growth rates for the purchase-only series are available for the nation and nine Census divisions. All of the CMHPI series can be found on Freddie Mac’s web site, www.freddiemac.com/finance/cmhpi/.
Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Over the years, Freddie Mac has made home possible for one in six homebuyers and more than five million renters.
| Purchase-Only Transactions Series | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2010 Release | ||||||||||
| All Entries Are Percent Changes | New England | Middle Atlantic | South Atlantic | East South Central | West South Central | West North Central | East North Central | Mountain | Pacific | The United States |
| Quarterly Change Q4 2009-Q1 2010 |
-1.1 | -0.4 | -2.3 | -3.1 | -0.9 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -2.0 | -2.1 |
| Annualized Quarterly Change Q4 2009-Q1 2010 |
-4.5 | -1.7 | -8.8 | -11.9 | -3.5 | -12.1 | -11.2 | -10.8 | -7.8 | -8.0 |
| Annual Change Q1 2009-Q1 2010 |
-1.7 | 1.0 | -4.0 | -1.8 | 0.7 | -1.3 | -3.4 | -6.1 | 4.5 | -1.1 |
| 5-Year Change Q1 2005-Q1 2010 |
-6.5 | 10.1 | -5.2 | 8.7 | 16.6 | -0.2 | -8.9 | -4.4 | -13.2 | -2.7 |
| Annualized 5-Year Change Q1 2005-Q1 2010 |
-1.3 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -0.9 | -2.8 | -0.5 |
| Classic CMHPI Series | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2010 Release | ||||||||||
| All Entries Are Percent Changes | New England | Middle Atlantic | South Atlantic | East South Central | West South Central | West North Central | East North Central | Mountain | Pacific | The United States |
| Quarterly Change Q4 2009-Q1 2010 |
-0.7 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -2.6 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Annualized Quarterly Change Q4 2009-Q1 2040 |
-2.8 | -3.7 | -7.1 | -4.7 | -3.4 | -5.5 | -7.7 | -10.1 | -6.0 | -6.0 |
| Annual Change Q1 2009-Q1 2010 |
-5.0 | -4.9 | -8.4 | -3.6 | -1.8 | -5.8 | -7.3 | -10.8 | -8.1 | -6.7 |
| 5-Year Change Q1 2005-Q1 2010 |
-3.6 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 14.8 | 18.6 | 2.5 | -2.8 | 5.4 | -7.8 | 2.6 |
| Annualized 5-Year Change Q1 2005-Q1 2010 |
-0.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 1.0 | -1.6 | 0.5 |
Send comments and questions to chief_economist@freddiemac.com. These data are available at www.freddiemac.com/finance/cmhpi
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's Office of the Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the Office of the Chief Economist attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. The information is therefore provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. © 2010 by Freddie Mac.
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