Economic & Housing Research

November 26, 2008 Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for the fourth consecutive week as signs the overall economy is weakening lowered most interest rates market-wide. However, due to Tuesday's announcement by the Federal Reserve Board to acquire GSE debt and mortgage-backed securities, mortgage rates have likely dropped this week more than our survey showed. Because of the holiday-shortened week, all data had been collected either Monday or by early Tuesday afternoon, prior to many lenders' adjusting their mortgage rates. The index of leading indicators fell 0.8 percent in October, below the market consensus, and sales of single-family houses (excluding condominiums) slipped below a 4.5 million (annualized) homes pace. Economic growth in the third quarter was revised downward this week, led by the first decline in consumer spending since the fourth quarter of 1991 and the largest drop since the second quarter of 1980. Declining house prices and low mortgage rates have raised housing affordability in September to the highest level since February of this year, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The median sales price of existing single-family homes (excluding condominiums) fell an additional 4.5 percent (monthly rate) in October, the NAR reported. Moreover, the California Association of Realtors has reported that median sales prices were down 40 percent October-to-October, to levels last seen in 2003, helping to spur affordability. » Next Commentary: December 4 Weekly Commentary - November 20, 2008 Weekly Commentary - November 13, 2008

Monthly Outlook

Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic and housing and mortgage market indicators and offers annual forecasts based on those indicators. As of August 2007, we are posting summary tables of projection data only.

• View the latest Summary Table of projection data XLS [XLS 60K] / PDF [PDF 35K].
• Monthly Outlook archives

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of Freddie Mac's Office of the Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the Office of the Chief Economist attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2008 by Freddie Mac. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.