Forecast

• Forecast | July 15, 2021

  Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Expected to Remain Strong Despite Major Supply Shortage and Historically High House Prices Across the U.S. Slowing Sales

  The latest employment report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that while the U.S. economy added 850,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, it is still down 6.8 million jobs from February 2020. Job openings have surged to a record high of 9.2 million, and as the economy continues to reopen, we expect the economy to continue to mend. Consensus forecasts put full year U.S. Real GDP growth over 6% in 2021, which would help to close the large gap between the current level of economic activity and potential output. More

  
• Forecast | April 14, 2021

  Quarterly Forecast: As the Economy Recovers, the Housing Market Remains Healthy While Mortgage Rates Move Up

  Availability of the vaccine continues to improve, and COVID-19 restrictions are easing therefore sparking economic growth. With the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which included payments of up to $1,400 for individuals, $2,800 for married couples plus $1,400 for each dependent, consumer confidence in March reached the highest level since the start of the pandemic. More

  
• Forecast | January 14, 2021

  Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Perform Strongly Primarily Driven by Historically Low Mortgage Rates

  It’s been close to a year since the pandemic began, and economic growth continues to remain uncertain. The availability of a COVID-19 vaccine and its widespread distribution should steer the economy towards recovery, but the timelines remain unknown. The labor market has recovered from the lows it reached in April of last year but continues to be weak. As of mid-December of 2020, jobless claims were still around 20 million, remaining well above the pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was 6.7% in December with more permanent job losses and less labor force participation signaling a slowdown in the current labor market recovery. More

  
• Forecast | October 14, 2020

  Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Rebound as Mortgage Rates Hover at Record Lows

  Economic activity stalled in early July. Even with many businesses reopening, unemployment claims remained high through September. Total jobless claims were about 26 million in the second week of September. More

  
• Forecast | June 16, 2020

  Quarterly Forecast: The Economy is Recovering from a Deep Contraction and Housing is Rebounding, but the Outlook Remains Highly Uncertain

  The effect of COVID-19 has been felt around the world and across the United States. As states have begun easing restrictions, the economy is rebounding but continues to be constrained. More

  
• Forecast | April 13, 2020

  Quarterly Forecast: The Housing Market Faces Challenges Amid Economic Uncertainty

  As large swathes of the U.S. economy shut down to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, the housing market faces its greatest challenge in over a decade. More

  

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Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's Economic & Housing Research group, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the Economic & Housing Research group attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution. Alteration of this document or its content is strictly prohibited. ©2021 by Freddie Mac.