• Outlook | October 20, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – October 2023

    The U.S. economy continues to grow at a pace closer to long-term trend as the labor market and consumer spending remain strong. More

    Exhibit 1: Bar chart showing the distribution of 2022 population by age. In 2022, largest age cohorts were 30 to 32 year-olds, the median age for first-time homebuyers was 33 and the median age of repeat homebuyers was 55.
  • Outlook | September 21, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – September 2023

    While overall economic growth has been resilient, the labor market shows signs of cooling off, with job openings down and job growth softening. The labor market slowdown may help reduce inflationary pressures. More

    Exhibit 1: Employment revisions: difference between the third and first estimate of nonfarm payrolls - Bar chart showing the difference between the third estimate and the first estimate of total nonfarm payroll growth from January 2022 to June 2023. There have been downward revisions for every month in 2023, with June being the largest downward revision at -104,000.
  • Outlook | August 17, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – August 2023

    U.S. economic growth remains on firm ground, with strong consumption spending and a tight labor market. Although housing market activity has slowed, a demand-supply imbalance is causing a rebound in home prices. More

    Share of outstanding mortgages by interest rate at origination (Q1 2023, %)
  • Outlook | July 24, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – July 2023

    The U.S. economy grew at its long-run average rate of 2% during the first quarter of 2023 and the labor market remains strong with an unemployment rate below 4%. The housing market has been impacted by high rates with millions of U.S. homeowners locked into previously low mortgage rates and content to remain in their current homes, helping to keep inventory low. More

    Exhibit 3: Percent Change in New Listings - Bar chart of the percentage change in listings of existing homes by month in 2022 and 2023 as compared to 2016-19 average where listings were down 35% in April 2023 but were only down 7% in April 2022.
  • Outlook | June 16, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – June 2023

    The U.S. economy is stalling as higher interest rates weigh on interest rate-sensitive sectors like housing. But the U.S. consumer has been resilient, and the broader economy has weathered several adverse shocks over the past year and a half, avoiding a recession so far. More

    The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPPlus combines both GDP and GDI to produce a composite estimate, and, as of June 7, 2023, GDPPlus estimates output growth at -1.4% and -1.2% for 2022Q4 and 2023Q1 respectively.
  • Outlook | May 22, 2023

    Economic, Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook – May 2023

    Recent data suggest the glass is more than half full: a growing economy, a strong labor market, and relatively resilient first-time homebuyer demand despite poor affordability. In this write-up, we summarize key recent developments, then provide our opinion on the outlook as well as a breakdown on the topic of inflation. More

    Residential investment's contribution to percent change in U.S. real gross domestic product

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